Iraq now, Vietnam then

The news from Iraq is starting to remind veteran political analysts of the events four decades ago in South Vietnam as successive U.S. puppet governments disintegrated under the weight of tremendous popular sentiment, with a liberation war knocking at the door.

The U.S. secret services then hatched and executed coups to remove some discredited, inept and well-hated puppet leaders. Their replacements had not yet exposed to the world their own corruption, favoritism and brutality that would soon make them just as inept and well-hated. Only 500,000-plus U.S. troops could keep them in power for more than a week.

Now in Iraq, with the continued U.S. occupation up for debate, cracks are exposed in the puppet regime. Bush’s surprise visit humiliates him, the occupation and the puppet leader, Nuri al-Maliki. Within days, the Maliki faction arrests 24 high-level military security figures.

Al-Maliki’s regime leaks charges to the New York Times that those arrested are secret Ba’athists—the ruling party in Iraq before the U.S. invasion—who were plotting a coup.

It’s true that enough agents of the Iraqi resistance have infiltrated the regime to track military maneuvers. But the Ba’athists, who are part of the resistance, have said they don’t believe a coup could succeed against the will of the U.S. occupation forces. They expect the resistance to wear down the U.S. until its forces leave. The “plot” story, then, is far-fetched.

Sure enough, two days after the Times story ran, the Iraqi military dropped the charges against the 24, calling them “patriotic officers.” It turns out a Maliki-appointed security agency had charged and arrested the “patriotic officers.” Instead, al-Maliki himself is now under suspicion.

Because of his friendly relations with Iran, al-Maliki has lost favor in Washington. If there is a “coup plot,” maybe the U.S. is behind it.

Speculation aside, there are some points—which were also true in South Vietnam—that these events have underlined:

The puppet regime is unstable, even more than it appeared up to now, and is torn apart by internal contradictions.

Despite all the propaganda about the U.S. “surge” working, there is no feasible pro-imperialist government than can run Iraq without large numbers of U.S. troops as an occupation army.

One way or another, Iraqi sovereignty will assert itself. There is no way the Iraqi people, even though horribly damaged by the U.S. invasion and occupation, will submit.

It is impossible for the U.S. to find an Iraqi political leader who is honest, courageous and capable to direct the puppet government. Any Iraqis with those characteristics joined the resistance long ago.

For the U.S. anti-war movement, it is time to move more forcefully into action. There is no way out except for the total withdrawal of U.S. forces, the recognition of the Iraqi resistance and payment of adequate reparations to the Iraqi people.